Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 211.406228 254.314706 306.539781 375.720143 466.389184 583.257010 7.488128e+02
2025-08-24 155.423303 203.149207 268.126802 365.979270 515.095863 743.861646 1.143773e+03
2025-08-31 123.844292 171.165618 240.762847 355.752485 552.365556 900.017513 1.632468e+03
2025-09-07 111.854292 162.591067 242.711375 387.379069 665.052724 1236.302976 2.730996e+03
2025-09-14 98.178114 148.011513 230.928434 391.097863 728.034283 1515.099877 4.025929e+03
2025-09-21 89.108228 138.825179 225.594336 404.171586 814.919003 1908.022743 6.261521e+03
2025-09-28 79.906783 127.691214 214.260468 401.704779 865.929710 2249.686167 9.055315e+03
2025-10-05 76.667122 126.367803 220.655152 438.345126 1032.243438 3102.777659 1.719943e+04
2025-10-12 73.032888 123.655080 223.656915 468.286099 1198.910898 4176.426705 3.361802e+04
2025-10-19 69.122144 119.772999 223.420569 490.374340 1357.131850 5474.473154 6.806500e+04
2025-10-26 64.978632 114.817719 219.919190 503.043527 1494.017417 6943.372859 1.423994e+05
2025-11-02 60.706415 109.027314 213.529065 506.019434 1599.506495 8487.500173 3.073393e+05
2025-11-09 55.831561 101.625028 202.754602 495.076054 1651.885744 9896.402026 6.812708e+05
2025-11-16 51.393443 94.659399 191.998002 481.630346 1689.283375 11384.388194 1.730781e+06
2025-11-23 47.447634 88.309352 181.767380 467.182934 1715.632379 12951.710342 5.487929e+06
2025-11-30 46.793166 89.031953 189.087272 512.340240 2085.747640 20733.610650 1.423557e+10
2025-12-07 44.372183 85.524148 185.048373 517.680124 2248.397680 27007.957185 NaN
2025-12-14 42.704706 83.539531 184.690849 536.476665 2520.344334 38861.095923 NaN
2025-12-21 40.359929 79.733792 178.839814 532.925528 2644.921722 49294.802244 NaN
2025-12-28 40.082365 80.764402 186.528849 585.917858 3270.055344 96138.595517 NaN
2026-01-04 39.406646 80.754518 191.292439 629.593392 3918.248348 190244.822562 NaN
2026-01-11 38.400742 79.816171 193.181017 662.020711 4545.971038 379681.392207 NaN
2026-01-18 37.098428 77.994973 192.105745 680.697282 5085.860007 743638.159752 NaN